The chances that Mr Trump will pass a big tax cut this year, let alone an infrastructure bill, are slim. Without that stimulus, it will be hard to sustain the sugar high.

 

The first serious test is when Congress votes today on Mr Trump’s Obamacare repeal bill. It looks like a 50-50 bet. Even if it passes the House of Representatives, its Senate prospects are dim. The bill is an unloved mess that relies solely on Republican partisan loyalty to pass. 

 

What ever the fate of “Trumpcare”, markets are digesting that nothing big will happen soon. Without a bench of nominees to staff his departments, Mr Trump will be hard-pressed to forge the deals necessary to enact once-in-a-generation tax reform.

Washington, by design, is treacherous ground for ambitious reformers. Even the most well-oiled attempts can run aground in Capitol Hill’s turf battles. To stand a chance, they require coherence, skilful coalition-building and high presidential approval ratings. Mr Trump lacks all three. The least expected feature of Mr Trump’s presidency is his indecision. Without anything close to a full team, he has been unable to produce a tax reform plan. His advisers cannot agree on whether to impose a border tax, how to fund new infrastructure and whether the reform should include personal as well as corporate tax cuts.

 

Steven Mnuchin, Mr Trump’s Treasury secretary, said the goal was to pass the tax cuts by August. That can now be ruled out. The soonest a significant bill could reach Mr Trump’s desk is probably in early 2018. The longer Mr Trump takes to say what would be in it, the more its prospects recede. Even with a clear-cut plan, Mr Trump’s weak approval rating, which this week dipped below 40 per cent and is the lowest for a president this early into his term, will limit his sway with legislators. 

 

Nobody knew precisely what Mr Trump would do in office. Yet the markets, like Mr Trump’s voters, thought he would at least know how to play the role of president. That conceit is dissolving.

 

Presidential terms can go one of three ways. Some start off with a bang, like Ronald Reagan in 1981 with his first big tax cut. That also applies to Barack Obama, who by this stage had passed the largest stimulus in US history. An early victory gives a young presidency momentum. They can begin haltingly, like Bill Clinton in 1993, who passed a big budget reform but floundered on healthcare. Or they can flop straight away, like George W Bush in his second term in 2005, whose defeat on social security ended serious legislative hopes.

 

The market has priced Mr Trump into the Reagan mould. In reality he is hovering between the second and the third type of presidential start. His next moment of truth after healthcare will come with first-quarter US growth numbers in early April. The Atlanta Federal Reserve has downgraded its forecast to below 1 per cent. Though Mr Trump cannot be blamed for the drop, he has taken noisy credit for numbers on which he has had no influence, such as jobs growth. He has also basked in the glow of a soaring stock market. It will be hard for him to talk his way out of a change for the worse.

 

Short of an epiphany on tax reform, Mr Trump can kindle animal spirits with aggressive deregulation. The energy sector is likely to do well with Mr Trump’s plans to scrap Obama-era environmental controls. Wall Street can also expect a relaxation in lending constraints. These should help growth at the margins. 

 

Against that, however, is the effect of Mr Trump’s visa restrictions. Tourism accounts for almost a tenth of the US economy. Flights and hotel bookings are dropping. Higher education is also a big income generator. Forty per cent of US colleges have reported a fall in student applications this year. Canada has seen a sharp jump.

In reality, Mr Trump’s visa restrictions are fairly limited. He has temporarily stopped issuing visas to citizens from six majority Muslim countries and his order may not survive legal challenges. But perception is king. Foreigners believe Mr Trump is rolling up America’s welcome mat. They sense on this that Mr Trump really does know his own mind. Here is one policy that he has broadcast too well. It is a pity it is so discouraging for growth.